Hawkeye down

Mitt Romney's 8-vote victory over Rick Santorum last evening, coupled with Ron Paul's solid third place showing, represent the proverbial three tickets out of Iowa. The Hawkeye State lived up to its reputation for winnowing the field as Michelle Bachmann bowed out today after a disappointing sixth place finish, and Rick Perry refused to take a similar cue despite early indications that he got the message that his campaign is DOA--oops.

That leaves Newt Gingrich, who cratered into a fourth place finish after a meteoric rebound a few weeks ago, and Jon Huntsman, who took a pass on Iowa and camped out instead in the Granite State circa John McCain in 2008. Newt arrived in New Hampshire on fumes, bloodied by a series of negative ads financed by Perry, Paul, and Romney-affiliated Super PACs. Last night's angry concession speech by the former House Speaker promised a new strategy, shedding the Mr. Nice Guy disguise for "Nuclear Newt." He ran a full page ad in this morning's Manchester (NH) Union-Leader contrasting himself from Romney, who remains a HUGE favorite in his adopted home state. Mitt is the "moderate Massachusetts Republican" (where have you gone, Nelson Rockefeller?), and Gingrich the "Reagan conservative."

Against this backdrop, I'd like to share my strategy memo for Mitt Romney assessing the current dynamics of the Republican race:
1. Romney's victory in Iowa last evening was not hollow. He devoted limited resources there and still prevailed in a state unfriendly to establishment Republicans. Santorum is in the mold of the candidate Hawkeye social conservatives prefer. His photo finish with the prohibitive national frontrunner is worthy of acclaim, but an anti-Romney challenger on the right was inevitable, and Santorum wore this sweater vest well.

2. Romney will be tested by the battle of expectations in New Hampshire and Gingrich's renewed commitment to knock him off his pedestal. Anything less than a 20-point victory will be pitched as further signs of Romney's vulnerabilities, with the first Southern test on the horizon in South Carolina. Romney is smart to pivot back to the general election contest he has run from the outset, remaining above the fray and focusing on Obama's failed presidency. Trotting out the McCain endorsement today lends credibility to the inevitability of his nomination. Beware of being blindsided during Saturday's debate.

3. A bleeding Romney opens a small window for Huntsman, the only candidate who has yet to surge in the field of current and former contenders. He's polling in the low teens, but paralleled Santorum's commitment to Iowa in New Hampshire, and may surge if rank-and-file Republicans seek an electable alternative to Romney. Odds are that Huntsman is one and done, for like Santorum, he doesn't have the resources or organization to go the distance against Romney's well-oiled delegate gathering machine.

4. Romney would be wise to co-opt Santorum's appeal to Reagan Democrats. His speech last evening was the best of the six delivered as he placed his finger on what perennially plagues Republicans: the party's inability to offer anything to blue collar workers other than tax cuts and reduced government spending. Romneycare is an asset here, as he needs to avoid the natural association with OWS' 1% and expand the tent of the country club wing of the GOP.

5. A play to Paulites will be more difficult, as Romney's hawkish defense positions endanger their drift to Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party in the general election. Huntsman has played this policy angle well in line with George W. Bush's humbler foreign policy pledge of 2000 devoid of nation-building. Isolation is not the answer, but there is something to Paul's argument that military and defense are not one in the same.

Romney's strategy memo detailed, I'll return later this week with additional ruminations on the political version of Mardi Gras playing out across New Hampshire, including an analysis of Saturday's debate.