David Brooks suggested last Friday that Mitt Romney's CEO credentials translate poorly into the prerequisites for presidential leadership. While I dispute this contention on its face, I do find his four alternative predictors convincing, and will attempt to apply them to the likely November matchup between Romney and the incumbent President, Barack Obama.
1. Emotional security: Romney meets this test more squarely given his aristocratic upbringing and the sense of obligation he inherited from his father who served as Governor of Michigan, and was a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 1968, not to mention the dictates of his Mormon faith. Obama also rates highly here, too, although he pursued a more unconventional path short of his attendance of Hawaii's most prestigious prep school, Columbia, and Harvard Law. He clearly developed a sense of social obligation as evidenced by his work as a community organizer and shunning of lucrative law practice for an adjunct teaching position and a political apprenticeship in Springfield.
2. Superb political judgement: Obama's failed presidency is an invokes an immediate "thumbs down" on this predictor. His misread of the real divides between "red" and "blue" America, utter disdain for Congress, small, insular network of advisors, and limited national political experience have been a recipe for disaster. Romney's grade is incomplete, as we have only his four-year tenure as Massachusetts Governor to assess. His failed runs for national office, the U.S. Senate in 1994, and the presidency four years ago, are potential red flags. Working in his favor is a strong record of reaching across the aisle in deep blue Massachusetts with a legislature stacked in opposition to his policy platform.
3. Crushing personal setbacks: While Romney's life reads like a fairy tale, Obama overcame the perpetual absence and untimely death of his father, not to mention a mother whose love was unconditional, but personal presence in his life was sporadic at best. His grandparents filled the vacuum, but the experiences explain why he is often a loner and unrealistic sense of his own personal power to affect change.
4. Instrumental mentality: One need look no further than the line "we are the change we've been waiting for" to mark the President with a failing grade in this area. His dismissal of former Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel's counsel to repeatedly "put points on the board" with the ultimate objective of prevailing over the course of four or eight years is even more damning. For instance, national health care legislation superseded economic recovery, cost him control of Congress, and may lead to his own unemployment this fall. Romney's business career at Bain Capital, leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics, and one term as Massachusetts Governor hold in common a singular belief in objectives greater than the man himself. He was merely a temporary steward helping to yield the ultimate objective, be it profit, a flawlessly executed Winter Games on the heels of 9/11, or the stewardship of a state deep in the red and recovering from a tech bubble that burst. Romney's moderation, while reviled by some of his conservative opponents and primary voters alike, is an asset in the general election and his potential ascension as the 45th President.
By these measures, Romney barely eclipses Obama. They serve as apt predictors of what promises to be a fiercely fought contest in November. Brooks is right that Romney is currently being tested on many of these parameters as his remaining opponents make their final stands in South Carolina. Obama benefited similarly from the war of attrition waged by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Indeed, he trumped his campaign itself as evidence of his qualifications for the presidency.
Voters have two threshold assessments to make this fall: One, is Obama's first term worthy of a second? Two, assuming a negative answer to the first question, is Romney a plausible alternative? Brooks' predictors of presidential greatness reveal "no" and "yes," answers, respectively.
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